Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Strong demand for hotel properties Despite the many development projects introduced on the market in recent years, demand for hotel property remains historically high, with e.g. several pension funds starting to invest in hotel buildings. Domestic pension fund AP Pension is backing the new Comwell hotel at Nordhavn, just as PFA has invested in several projects, including the new Hotel Ottilia in the Carlsberg City District (with Topdanmark as co-investor). ATP is also an active hotel investor, in a joint venture with Scandic developing a new hotel at Nørreport station and redeveloping the former Nordea head office at Christianshavn into a Hilton hotel, scheduled to open in 2021. So far, the great many new room additions and the prospects of more to come have yet to affect the pricing of hotel property. Although the market has become more mature, investors continue to zoom in on operational cash flows, in particular on the credit rating of the tenants in charge of daily hotel operations. Investors would sooner own and let buildings, leaving actual operations to others, preferably with a long lease agreement in place. Investors could in fact achieve higher returns if entering into management or operating agreements, but we currently see investors prioritising secure investments, more prepared to take on the risk associated with tenant quality than operational risk. Nevertheless, a host of specialist investors are not averse to investing in hotels with variable rents or management agreements. The stronger appetite for hotels among pension funds, etc. must be held up against both yield compression in other property segments and higher placement requirements. In view of the strong demand and limited supply of stabilised core-quality hotels, it is likely that 2020 will see yield requirements coming under further downward pressure. Copenhagen hotels only rarely trade as going concerns as most of them have stable tenants, often major domestic or international hotel chains. Indeed, 2019 only saw very few transactions, among them Swedish Midstar’s acquisition of 366-room Copenhagen Admiral Hotel, ending more than 40 years’ ownership by former airline captains and their heirs.

Stor efterspørgsel på hotelejendomme Selv om mange projekter har ramt markedet de senere år, er der stadig historisk høj efterspørgsel på hotelejendomme, og eksempelvis er flere pensionskasser begyndt at investere i hotelbygninger. Fx står AP Pension bag det kommende Comwell- hotel på Nordhavn, ligesom PFA har investeret i flere projekter, deriblandt det kommende Hotel Ottilia i Carlsberg Byen (her med Topdanmark som medinvestor). Også ATP er aktiv hotelinvestor og udvikler blandt andet sammen med Scandic et nyt hotel ved Nørreport og er ved at ombygge det tidligere Nordea-hovedkontor på Christianshavn til Hilton-hotel med forventet åbning i 2021. De mange nye værelser og udsigt til endnu flere har foreløbig ikke påvirket prissætningen på hotelejendomme. Selv om markedet er blevet mere modent, har investorerne fortsat skarpt fokus på cashflowet fra driften og især på boniteten hos lejerne, som står for den daglige drift af hotellerne. Investorerne foretrækker at eje og udleje bygningerne og overlade selve driften til andre, helst med en langsigtet lejeaftale. Investorerne kunne ellers opnå højere afkast ved at indgå management- eller driftsaftaler, men vi kan i øjeblikket registrere, at investorerne lægger stor vægt på sikre investeringer og derfor foretrækker at tage risiko på lejerens bonitet frem for på selve driften af hotellet. Dog investerer en række mere specialiserede investorer også gerne i hoteller med variabel leje eller managementaftaler. Det stigende engagement i hoteller hos fx pensionskasser skal ses i lyset dels af faldende afkast i andre ejendomssegmenter, dels et øget placeringsbehov. Med stor efterspørgsel og begrænset udbud af core-hoteller med stabil drift er det sandsynligt, at vi i løbet af 2020 vil opleve et yderligere nedadgående pres på afkastkravene. Der bliver kun sjældent handlet københavnske hoteller i drift, fordi hovedparten af dem har stabile ejere, ofte store danske eller internationale hotelkæder. I 2019 så vi da også kun få handler, blandt dem var svenske Midstars køb af det 366 værelser store Copenhagen Admiral Hotel, som i over 40 år havde været ejet af tidligere luftkaptajner og deres arvinger.

 EMIL HELMSØE-ZINCK , emil.helmsoee-zinck@colliers.com