Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Danish economy

135

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

From high to moderate GDP growth Danish GDP growth was exceptionally strong in 2016, 2017 and 2018 with growth rates of 3.2%, 2.0% and 2.4%, respectively. In 2019, GDP growth was more moderate, but considering international uncertainty and the global economic slowdown, Danish economy remained on track during the year. The current upturn is expected to continue, albeit at more moderate growth rates. Danske Bank expects total GDP growth to close at 2.1% in 2019, with a further slowdown to 1.3% in 2020. Growth is driven by an increase in consumer spending on the back of higher wealth and real wages as well as improved employment figures. In addition, stronger exports served to bolster economic growth in 2019. Because of higher employment levels, households also have more money to spend. In tandem with low interest rates and only slight price increases, this has helped to improve households’ financial leeway. However, consumption ratios remain low, with a potential for further economic growth, provided Danes start to reduce their savings and consume more instead.

Fra høj til moderat BNP-vækst Danmarks BNP er steget markant gennem 2016, 2017 og 2018 med vækstrater på henholdsvis 3,2%, 2,0% og 2,4%. I 2019 var BNP-væksten mere moderat, men i betragtning af international usikkerhed og opbremsningen i verdensøkonomien klarede dansk økonomi sig godt gennem året. Det nuværende opsving forventes at fortsætte om end med mere afdæmpede vækstrater. Danske Bank venter, at den samlede vækst for 2019 ender på 2,1% for 2019, og at den aftager yderligere til 1,3% i 2020. Væksten er drevet af stigende privatforbrug som følge af voksende formuer og realløn samt fremgang i beskæftigelsen. Derudover har stigende eksport i 2019 været bidragyder til den økonomiske vækst. Med den stigende beskæftigelse har husholdningerne også fået større rådighedsbeløb. I kombination med lave renter og kun små prisstigninger har det været med til at øge husholdningernes råderum. Forbrugskvoten er dog fortsat lav, hvilket giver mulighed for yderligere vækst i økonomien, hvis danskerne begynder at spare mindre op og i stedet forbruger mere.

 EMIL HELMSØE-ZINCK , emil.helmsoee-zinck@colliers.com