Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

52

Stricter loan requirements affect prices The ownership housing market has seen even sharper price rallies than the rental market in recent years: Driven mainly by low interest rates, growing income levels and strong demand, average square-metre prices in Copenhagen rose from approx DKK 21,900 in 2011 to some DKK 39,900 in 2019. Although further interest rate cuts slightly bolstered housing prices in 2019, tighter credit requirements started to feed through to the market. In 2018, the Danish FSA introduced stricter mortgage lending rules in the biggest cities of Denmark, following some years of surging prices. The FSA has stipulated loan-to-income limits for home mortgages. In addition, it has introduced a stress test, meaning that the borrower must be able to service a loan carrying 4% interest, that is, substantially exceeding the interest rate level in the last couple years. In our estimation, stricter loan requirements combined with the substantial new supply of housing have contributed to the slowdown or in a few locations even a slight decline in Copenhagen prices for owner-occupied flats. At the same time, uncertainty about the pending changes in public property valuations have deterred many homeowners from investing in a new home. In October 2019, however, changes were put on hold until 2024, expected to somewhat fuel residential transaction activity, including off-plan sales, which have been hit particularly hard by the uncertainty in terms of future housing tax.

Lånestramninger rammer priser Ejerboligmarkedet har i endnu højere grad end lejemarkedet oplevet stigninger de senere år. Især drevet af lave renter, stigende indkomster og en høj efterspørgsel er den gennemsnitlige kvadratmeterpris i København forøget fra ca. 21.900 kr. i 2011 til omtrent 39.900 kr. i 2019. Selv om yderligere rentefald i løbet af 2019 har givet boligpriserne lidt medvind, begynder effekten af strammere låneregler at vise sig i markedet. Finanstilsynet strammede i 2018 reglerne for boliglån i landets største byer – efter nogle år med kraftige prisstigninger. Tilsynet har lagt loft over, hvor meget familier må låne i forhold til årsindkomsten, ligesom der er indført en stresstest, så en låntager skal være i stand til at betale ydelser på et lån med fire procent i rente, altså markant højere end renteniveauet gennem de seneste par år. Det er vores vurdering, at lånestramninger kombineret med den store tilgang af nye boliger har været en medvirkende årsag til, at ejerlejlighedspriserne i København har været stagnerende og endda svagt faldende enkelte steder i København. Samtidig har usikkerhed om de kommende ændringer i de offentlige ejendomsvurderinger medført, at flere har afholdt sig fra at investere i ny bolig. I oktober 2019 blev ændringerne dog udskudt til 2024, hvilket må forventes at have en mindre, positiv effekt på antallet af bolighandler, herunder af projektlejligheder, som i særlig grad havde lidt under usikkerheden om den fremtidige boligskat.