Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Solid Danish property market

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

8

Shift from residential to office property The decline in transaction volume is driven mainly by a slowdown in the residential segment, where brisk newbuilding activity has made some investors hold back. At the same time, several transactions have been suspended as the possibility of political intervention against modernisations is looming, involving the much-debated section 5(2) of the Danish Residential Rent Regulation Act. The market for office property on the other hand has seen multiple high-volume transactions involving centrally located properties, with the combination of strong demand and limited supply translating into record-low yield requirements for this property type. Major investors in particular from Germany and the Nordics have contributed to yield compression, as a small yield premium is still achievable in Copenhagen when compared to e.g. Stockholm, Oslo, Hamburg and Munich. As a result, prices have now reached such a high level that some long-term investors will probably consider making office property divestments and reallocations to other property types. This also applies to some domestic investors relying more on comparing risk-and-return ratios offered by various property types across Denmark rather than on comparing risk-and-return ratios offered by the same property types across national borders.

Forskydning fra boliger til kontorer Faldet i omfanget af transaktioner skyldes især en opbremsning inden for boligejendomme. Her har omfattende nybyggeri gjort nogle investorer mere tilbageholdne, og samtidig er flere handler sat i bero på grund af usikkerheden om et muligt politisk indgreb mod moderniseringer, den meget omtalte paragraf 5, stk. 2 i boligreguleringsloven. Til gengæld har markedet for kontorejendomme oplevet flere store handler med centralt beliggende ejendomme, og den store efterspørgsel kombineret med et begrænset udbud har givet sig udslag i rekordlave afkastkrav for denne type ejendomme. Især større investorer fra Tyskland og Norden har været med til at drive afkastkravene ned, da der stadig eksisterer en mindre afkastpræmie i København i forhold til fx Stockholm, Oslo, Hamborg og München. Det har betydet et så højt prisleje, at nogle langsigtede investorer formentlig overvejer, om de skal sælge kontorejendomme og i stedet øge investeringerne i andre typer ejendomme. Det gælder fx nogle danske investorer, der i højere grad sammenligner risiko og afkast på tværs af ejendomstyper i Danmark frem for at sammenligne risiko og afkast for samme type ejendomme på tværs af grænser.

Sluseholmen, Copenhagen waterfront