Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

86

New consumer patterns and demands Multiple factors support the bright outlook for the logistics market in the Capital Region of Denmark: In 2009-2018, consumer spending increased by 8%, with the number of households increasing by 5%. In addition, the Capital Region of Denmark is predicted to see 7% population growth by 2030. At the same time, Danes – one of the most digital populations worldwide – increasingly shop online. In 2011, online sales accounted for approx 5% of total consumer spending, in 2018 almost tripling to some 13% with prospects of further growth. We expect the Danish market to be influenced by the trends prevailing abroad in terms of same-day delivery – within a matter of hours – and strong consumer demands for the easy return. E-commerce growth has dramatically changed the business concept of many transport businesses over the past decade. Previously focused exclusively on the b2b segment, DHL today also makes home deliveries. Based on new consumer patterns and stricter consumer demands on businesses, demand is projected to grow even stronger for large-scale logistics facilities in and around the motorway grid and for minor logistics facilities – for last mile distribution – around Copenhagen. Stricter consumer demands will sharpen businesses’ focus on internal supply chains and distribution strategies. In addition, the demands will serve to intensify competition for top-location logistics facilities enabling businesses to effect quick and prompt customer deliveries.

Nye forbrugsmønstre og forbrugerkrav En lang række faktorer understøtter et positivt marked for logistiklokaler i Region Hovedstaden. I perioden 2009-18 er forbruget steget med 8%, mens antallet af husstande i samme periode er vokset 5%. Indbyggertallet i Region Hovedstaden forventes yderligere at vokse med i alt 7% frem mod 2030. Samtidig handler danskerne – et af klodens mest digitale folkefærd – mere og mere over nettet. I 2011 stod nethandel for ca. 5% af det samlede forbrug, andelen var i 2018 næsten tredoblet til omkring 13% og skønnes at stige yderligere. Vi forventer, at også det danske marked bliver præget af tendenser fra udlandet med levering samme dag – inden for timer – og med høje krav hos forbrugere om at kunne returnere varer. Den stigende nethandel har markant ændret forretningsmodellen hos flere transportvirksomheder det seneste tiår. Tidligere var fx DHL en ren business-to-business-virksomhed, men leverer i dag også til private. Med de nye forbrugsmønstre og forbrugernes øgede krav til virksomhederne er der udsigt til fortsat stigende efterspørgsel på store logistikejendomme i og langs motorvejsnettet og på mindre logistikfaciliteter – last mile-distributionsejendomme – omkring hovedstaden. De øgede krav fra forbrugerne vil skærpe virksomhedernes fokus på interne forsyningskæder og strategier for distribution. Og kravene vil medvirke til mere intens konkurrence om at få de bedst placerede logistikejendomme, så virksomhederne kan levere hurtigt og effektivt til deres kunder.

Strong growth forecast for Danish online sales (index 100 = 2011)

313

249

281

100

119

136

160

189

219

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Note I: Turnover e-commerce in Denmark. Estimated online sales (DKK bn). Note II: Turnover 2019 based on interim estimate by FDIH e-commerce report. Source: FIDH