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2020

COPENHAG EN PROPE RT Y MAR K E T R E PORT

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

2020 CONTENT

OFFICE HOTEL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL REGIONS RESIDENTIAL

6 8 14

Summary Property price index. Commercial property prices approaching pre-crisis Investing in Denmark . Sound fundamentals and superior framework conditions Office. Strongest office market since the crisis Residential. Liquid market challenged by high price expectationsHotel

20 38 56 74 92 112 116 120 124 128 129 130

Hotel. Lorem ipsum about hotels Retail. F&B and tourist hotspot Industrial & logistics. A thriving market segment

Aarhus brief Odense brief Aalborg brief Triangle Region in brief Market practises Definitions About Colliers International

110

2020

COPENHAG EN PROPE RT Y MAR K E T R E PORT

Available on all mobile devices on www.colliers.dk

The Copenhagen Property Market Report 2019 is available in an extended digital version at www.colliers.dk Sign up for our quarterly newsletter for analyses on the Danish commercial and investment property market at www.colliers.dk

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

No signs of gloom in the property market – quite the opposite No signs of gloom in the property market – quite the opposite

Despite financial market volatility and fears of slowing global growth, the Danish commercial property market is still going strong: In 2018, capital growth exceeded 4% in the Greater Copenhagen investment property market, and domestic and international property investors continue to show a healthy appe- tite for investments, in the office and industrial/logistics markets in particular. The residential market remains attractive, too, although the volume of new developments coming to the market has put a slight downward pressure on rents as well as slowed forward purchases. Short-term interest rates continue to be negative, with property financing available at extremely low rates via the highly efficient Danish mortgage financing system. Property transaction activity slowed in 2018, with the total volume of transactions falling 20% short of the record-breaking level of 2017, mainly due to a shortage of adequately priced prod- ucts. Still, 2018 comes in second in history in terms of national transaction volumes. This 2019 market report by Colliers International offers an over- view of key economic trends and of the Copenhagen commercial property market, including occupational and investment market.

Copenhagen, February 2020

Peter Winther, Partner and CEO (MRICS) peter.winther@colliers.com

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

2019 summary of the year 2019 oversigt over året

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Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

The headline in English

Overskrift på dansk

PROPERTY PRICE INDEX

Sustained uptrend in Greater Copenhagen commercial property prices documented by six consecutive years of capital gains 8.9% Total average return on commercial property in 2018 15 bps Commercial property sector income return requirement compression in 2018

In real terms, Copenhagen commercial property prices remain below 2007-level

500

400

300

200

100

18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01

Nominal values

De ated values

Note: Colliers International property price index (index 100 = Q3 1984). Source: Colliers International

https://helpx.adobe.com/dk/illustrator/using/graphs.html#enter-graph-data

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Grafik

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Grafik

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr.por invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Stet clita kasd gubergren DK

INVESTING IN DENMARK

Grafik

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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Danish unemployment rate at structural low

Danish inflation edging up

10% 12% 14%

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr.por invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadip- scing elitr, sed diam nonumy eirmod tempor invidunt ut labore et dolore magna aliquyam erat, sed diam voluptua. At vero eos et accusam et justo duo dolores et ea rebum. Stet clita kasd gubergren, no sea takimata sanctus est Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consetetur sadipscing elitr. Stet clita kasd gubergren DK

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

-1%

13 12 11

E18

E19

13 12 11

E18

E19

Denmark

Eurozone

Denmark

Eurozone

Sources: Statistics Denmark, Eurostat and Danske Bank

Sources: Eurostat and Danske Bank

Historically low interest rates

2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

-2% -1% 0% 1%

10 09

13 12 11

Grafik

Eurozone (3M) Denmark (3M)

Eurozone (10-year gov. bond) Denmark (10-year gov. bond)

Note: Short-term interest rates (3M) and 10-year government bonds. Sources: Eurostat, ECB and Nasdaqomxnordic

Falck-Huset, CBD

Macroeconomic key indicators: Continued upturn in Danish economy

Consumer spending 1

Public debt 3

10-year swap yield 4

Year

GDP 1 Unemployment 2

Exports 1

Inflation 1

Grafik

Denmark 2018

1.0

4.0 3.9 3.8 8.2 7.8 7.5

2.4

0.2 2.7 2.0

0.8

33.5

0.90

2019 2020

2.0

1.9

1.3 1.6

33.1

1.55

1.6

2.3

33.2

Eurozone 2018

1.9 1.6 1.5

1.3 1.7 1.6

2.7 2.5 2.7

1.8 1.8 1.6

86.9 84.9 82.8

0.75 1.00

2019 2020

1 Growth (% y/y), 2 % of workforce, 3 % of GDP, 4 End-year. Sources: Danske Bank and Eurostat

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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TRANSACTION VOLUME: The decline in transaction volume is not due to lack of investor demand but rather a mismatch between sell-side and buy-side price expectations.

Core assets head the field

Slight decline in transaction volume despite capital abundance

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

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0 10

3% Opportunistic 5% User 32% Value-add 60% Core

Greater Copenhagen

Rest of Denmark

Note: Transaction volume, Denmark (DKK billion). Source: Colliers International

Note: Breakdown of transaction volume by investment type. Rounded figures. Transaction volume, Denmark. Source: Colliers International

Prime investment yields, high-street retail

Both Copenhagen and Aarhus offer competitive returns compared to other European cities.

Residential assets remain the most coveted

Oslo 4.00%*

Stockholm 3.75%

Aarhus 3.75% Amsterdam 3.00%*

Copenhagen 3.00%

Hamburg 2.90%* Berlin 3.20%*

London 2.50%

Brussels 3.25%*

Frankfurt 2.80%*

Paris 2.50%

Munich 2.80%*

12% Retail 27% O ce 47% Residential

2% Hotel 3% Other 9% Industrial/logistics

Note: Breakdown of transaction volume by asset type. Rounded figures. Transaction volume, Denmark. Source: Colliers International

Note: Yields are net initial yields except if marked (*) which denotes gross yields. Source: Colliers International

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

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OFFICE HOTEL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL REGIONS RESIDENTIAL

OFFICE

Copenhagen Property Market Report 2020

Overview over the office market Overblik over office

Grafik

OFFICE HOTEL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL REGIONS RESIDENTIAL

Stet clita kasd gubergren UK

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Supply pipeline of building rights is limited in view of current population forecast

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Nordhavn 1,700,000 sqm

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Copenhagen

Carlsberg City District 250,000 sqm

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Amager Strandpark 200,000 sqm

F.L. Smidth and Grønttorvet 150,000 sqm

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Sydhavnen 225,000 sqm

Ørestad 275,000 sqm

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