Newsletter Q1 UK 2018

Newsletter Q1 2018

Surge in student count since 2006

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140

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110

100

90

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Population growth, Greater Cph.

National population growth

Student count, Greater Copenhagen

Note: Increase in student count vs. population growth in Greater Copenhagen and Denmark in general (index 100 = 2006) Sources: Statistics Denmark and Sadolin & Albæk

in the ranks of students in the same period. Not surprisingly, the waiting lists managed by the two largest student housing boards, KKIK and CIU, counted 12,000 and 14,500, respectively, in 2017. Assuming that the average area requirement per student is 35 sqm, the demand for student housing in terms of square metres therefore outstripped supply by as much as 735,000 sqm. However, the supply-side not only includes traditional student hall rooms, but also small flats in the private housing market. Similarly, the demand is to be adjusted for a very high number of students still living at home. Based on a survey on students’ housing conditions (Nordea, 2015), Sadolin & Albæk has made an adjusted estimation of aggregate supply and demand. Based on the findings of the survey, we estimate that 35% live at home with their parents, corresponding to 37,600 students. The number of private residential units for students is calculated as the number of student hall rooms less the number of students living at home. Accordingly, the number of students living in private residential units is some 54,000, corresponding to 50%. Students mainly

by the financial crisis and the ensuing economic downturn, translating into higher unemployment rates and, by extension, causing a shift in favour of the educational system. Irrespective of impressive historical growth rates, the student count is projected to level off longer term. The forecast is based on movements in the youth population aged 20 to 29, assuming that the student ratio of future generations remains constant. A corrective measure is applied to factor in a decline in the proportion of international students from the current 22% to 19%, with the latter corresponding to the average recorded in 2005-2016. This only marginally affects the stagnating student count, which is instead driven mainly by a decline in the youth population of future generations. Highly limited supply Broadly speaking, the Greater Copenhagen housing supply has been outstripped by demand for the past decade, with student accommodation being in particular short supply. In 2008-2017, the volume of student housing completions was approximately 35,000 sqm, equivalent to 1,000 units, which figure is to be held up against a 22,000-strong increase

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